PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 19 · 2026 season

Mexico City Grand Prix

LIVEPredicted before the race Sun 01 Nov 2026, 20:50 UTC · 04:50 Manila

P1 HAM Ferrari 67% to win Finished 2nd
P2 RUS Mercedes 16% to win Finished 6th
P3 LEC Ferrari 7% to win Finished 4th

Favourite HAM (67%) finished 2nd1 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: LAW, 15th to 7th

Polymarket had VER at 15%, the model 2%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 HAMFerrari P2 1 place lower
P2 RUSMercedes P6 4 places lower
P3 LECFerrari P4 1 place lower
P4 NORMcLaren P5 1 place lower
P5 HADRed Bull P9 4 places lower
P6 VERRed Bull P1 5 places higher
P7 ANTMercedes P3 4 places higher
P8 GASAlpine F1 Team P17 9 places lower
P9 LINRB F1 Team DNF
P10 HULAudi P14 4 places lower
P11 PIAMcLaren P13 2 places lower
P12 BORAudi P8 4 places higher
P13 COLAlpine F1 Team P15 2 places lower
P14 BEAHaas F1 Team DNF
P15 LAWRB F1 Team P7 8 places higher
P16 SAIWilliams P12 4 places higher
P17 HIRHaas F1 Team P10 7 places higher
P18 ALOAston Martin DNF
P19 ALBWilliams P11 8 places higher
P20 STRAston Martin DNF
P21 PERCadillac F1 Team P16 5 places higher
P22 BOTCadillac F1 Team DNF

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001HAM93672RUS75163LEC5074NOR275HAD176VER167ANT158GAS19LIN110HUL1

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 HAM Ferrari 1 66.9 93.4 94.4 5.8
2 RUS Mercedes 2 15.8 75.2 93.7 6.4
3 LEC Ferrari 3 7.2 49.8 93.7 6.5
4 NOR McLaren 6+2 3.5 27.3 90.1 9.8
5 HAD Red Bull 7+2 2.1 16.8 89.8 9.8
6 VER Red Bull 5-1 1.9 15.7 90.2 9.4
7 ANT Mercedes 4-3 1.9 15.2 93.0 6.7
8 GAS Alpine F1 Team 9+1 0.2 1.4 64.1 11.2
9 LIN RB F1 Team 8-1 0.2 1.3 60.9 11.0
10 HUL Audi 10 0.1 1.1 51.8 12.0
11 PIA McLaren 12+1 0.1 0.9 48.8 14.7
12 BOR Audi 13+1 0.0 0.6 37.9 13.5
13 COL Alpine F1 Team 11-2 0.0 0.5 34.9 12.8
14 BEA Haas F1 Team 14 0.0 0.2 11.1 15.7
15 LAW RB F1 Team 22+7 0.0 0.1 8.8 25.1
16 SAI Williams 15-1 0.0 0.1 8.7 18.1
17 HIR Haas F1 Team 18+1 0.0 0.1 7.2 20.5
18 ALO Aston Martin 17-1 0.0 0.1 6.2 28.7
19 ALB Williams 16-3 0.0 0.1 6.4 17.8
20 STR Aston Martin 19-1 0.0 0.1 4.8 35.2
21 PER Cadillac F1 Team 20-1 0.0 0.0 2.5 30.5
22 BOT Cadillac F1 Team 21-1 0.0 0.0 0.9 31.3

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.