PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 20 · 2026 season

São Paulo Grand Prix

LIVEPredicted before the race Sun 08 Nov 2026, 16:11 UTC · 00:11 Manila

P1 RUS Mercedes 30% to win Finished 4th
P2 HAD Red Bull Racing 24% to win Finished 3rd
P3 NOR McLaren 16% to win Finished 1st

Favourite RUS (30%) finished 4th2 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: VER, 8th to 2nd

Polymarket had NOR at 29%, the model 16%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 RUSMercedes P4 3 places lower
P2 HADRed Bull Racing P3 1 place lower
P3 NORMcLaren P1 2 places higher
P4 LAWRacing Bulls P7 3 places lower
P5 LECFerrari P8 3 places lower
P6 ANTMercedes P5 1 place higher
P7 HULAudi P10 3 places lower
P8 VERRed Bull Racing P2 6 places higher
P9 HAMFerrari P9 ✓ exact
P10 PIAMcLaren P6 4 places higher
P11 LINRacing Bulls P11 ✓ exact
P12 SAIWilliams P19 7 places lower
P13 CAMHaas F1 Team P20 7 places lower
P14 ALOAston Martin P12 2 places higher
P15 BEAHaas F1 Team P17 2 places lower
P16 ALBWilliams P15 1 place higher
P17 GASAlpine P14 3 places higher
P18 COLAlpine P13 5 places higher
P19 BORAudi P16 3 places higher
P20 STRAston Martin DNF
P21 BOTCadillac DNS
P22 PERCadillac P18 4 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

0204060801RUS71302HAD65243NOR52164LAW35105LEC3196ANT187HUL88VER49HAM510PIA2

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 RUS Mercedes 7+6 29.9 71.2 90.6 9.8
2 HAD Red Bull Racing 5+3 24.0 64.6 91.7 8.5
3 NOR McLaren 1-2 16.1 51.5 93.5 6.6
4 LAW Racing Bulls 3-1 9.5 34.8 93.7 6.1
5 LEC Ferrari 14+9 8.7 30.9 83.7 15.8
6 ANT Mercedes 2-4 4.5 18.0 92.5 5.7
7 HUL Audi 4-3 2.2 8.4 82.6 7.5
8 VER Red Bull Racing 21+13 1.1 4.3 54.2 30.7
9 HAM Ferrari 20+11 1.1 4.6 58.5 25.3
10 PIA McLaren 10 0.6 2.3 43.3 12.7
11 LIN Racing Bulls 12+1 0.5 1.9 39.4 14.4
12 SAI Williams 13+1 0.4 1.6 33.5 15.8
13 CAM Haas F1 Team 11-2 0.4 1.4 31.5 12.5
14 ALO Aston Martin 8-6 0.2 0.9 23.7 16.6
15 BEA Haas F1 Team 6-9 0.3 1.1 24.7 8.7
16 ALB Williams 9-7 0.2 0.8 20.7 10.6
17 GAS Alpine 16-1 0.1 0.6 15.9 19.4
18 COL Alpine 15-3 0.1 0.4 9.6 17.7
19 BOR Audi 19 0.1 0.2 6.4 21.4
20 STR Aston Martin 17-3 0.0 0.2 5.2 34.2
21 BOT Cadillac 18-3 0.0 0.1 2.9 27.4
22 PER Cadillac 22 0.0 0.1 2.1 35.8

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.