PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 18 · 2026 season

United States Grand Prix

LIVEPredicted before the race Mon 26 Oct 2026, 02:54 UTC · 10:54 Manila

P1 ANT Mercedes 44% to win Finished 1st
P2 LEC Ferrari 22% to win Finished 2nd
P3 VER Red Bull Racing 21% to win Finished 3rd

ANT won as favourite at 44%3 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: STR, 20th to 15th

Polymarket had ANT at 35%, the model 44%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 ANTMercedes P1 ✓ exact
P2 LECFerrari P2 ✓ exact
P3 VERRed Bull Racing P3 ✓ exact
P4 HAMFerrari P4 ✓ exact
P5 HADRed Bull Racing P6 1 place lower
P6 RUSMercedes P8 2 places lower
P7 PIAMcLaren P7 ✓ exact
P8 NORMcLaren P5 3 places higher
P9 LAWRacing Bulls P9 ✓ exact
P10 HULAudi P11 1 place lower
P11 GASAlpine P10 1 place higher
P12 LINRacing Bulls P12 ✓ exact
P13 BEAHaas F1 Team DNF
P14 COLAlpine DNF
P15 BORAudi P13 2 places higher
P16 ALOAston Martin P16 ✓ exact
P17 OCOHaas F1 Team P14 3 places higher
P18 SAIWilliams P18 ✓ exact
P19 ALBWilliams P17 2 places higher
P20 STRAston Martin P15 5 places higher
P21 PERCadillac P19 2 places higher
P22 BOTCadillac DNF

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001ANT88442LEC73223VER72214HAM275HAD196RUS97PIA58NOR39LAW110HUL1

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 ANT Mercedes 1 44.4 88.4 94.7 5.5
2 LEC Ferrari 4+2 21.9 73.0 92.8 7.4
3 VER Red Bull Racing 2-1 21.4 72.2 92.2 8.0
4 HAM Ferrari 5+1 5.2 27.3 91.5 8.5
5 HAD Red Bull Racing 3-2 3.4 18.7 92.2 7.6
6 RUS Mercedes 6 1.6 9.4 90.4 9.2
7 PIA McLaren 7 0.9 5.1 88.2 10.5
8 NOR McLaren 8 0.6 3.0 84.2 11.9
9 LAW Racing Bulls 9 0.1 0.6 53.4 9.7
10 HUL Audi 11+1 0.1 0.7 49.0 13.3
11 GAS Alpine 10-1 0.1 0.6 48.5 12.1
12 LIN Racing Bulls 14+2 0.0 0.5 39.8 17.5
13 BEA Haas F1 Team 13 0.0 0.2 26.2 14.6
14 COL Alpine 20+6 0.0 0.1 12.4 24.1
15 BOR Audi 21+6 0.0 0.1 9.7 23.7
16 ALO Aston Martin 12-4 0.0 0.1 9.6 22.5
17 OCO Haas F1 Team 15-2 0.0 0.0 8.4 17.0
18 SAI Williams 16-2 0.0 0.0 4.9 19.9
19 ALB Williams 17-2 0.0 0.0 4.5 19.1
20 STR Aston Martin 22+2 0.0 0.0 3.2 42.5
21 PER Cadillac 18-3 0.0 0.0 2.5 27.1
22 BOT Cadillac 19-3 0.0 0.0 1.9 27.4

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.