PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

2026 season · 20 races scored

Season scorecard

12/20 races where the model's order beat the grid's

Live, before the race: 6 of 6 beat grid order.

Totals

All races (20)Live only (6)
ModelGridModelGrid
Order match0.730.670.780.63
Winner right70%70%67%83%
Podium spots right70%60%78%56%
Places off, average3.13.43.13.9
Win chance given to the winner39%—36%—

Against the betting market

Win chance each side gave the eventual winner, from Polymarket an hour before the start

ModelPolymarket
R1 Australian72%70%
R2 Chinese44%28%
R3 Japanese57%52%
R4 Miami65%34%
R5 Canadian18%30%
R6 Monaco44%57%
R7 Barcelona37%15%
R8 Austrian62%37%
R9 British7%7%
R10 Belgian23%66%
R11 Hungarian49%33%
R12 Dutch54%32%
R13 Italian4%4%
R14 Spanish28%38%
R15 Azerbaijan78%64%
R16 Bahrain42%57%
R17 Singapore33%62%
R18 United States44%35%
R19 Mexico City2%15%
R20 São Paulo16%29%
Average (20)39%38%
Winner log loss, lower is better1.251.16

The model gave the winner more than the market in 11 of 20 races.

Race by race

ModelGrid orderOrder match, 1 is perfect

0.000.250.500.751.00R1 Australian: model 0.74, grid 0.60 (made after the race)1AustralianR2 Chinese: model 0.77, grid 0.80 (made after the race)2ChineseR3 Japanese: model 0.89, grid 0.92 (made after the race)3JapaneseR4 Miami: model 0.58, grid 0.71 (made after the race)4MiamiR5 Canadian: model 0.49, grid 0.47 (made after the race)5CanadianR6 Monaco: model 0.36, grid 0.37 (made after the race)6MonacoR7 Barcelona: model 0.73, grid 0.74 (made after the race)7BarcelonaR8 Austrian: model 0.95, grid 0.94 (made after the race)8AustrianR9 British: model 0.55, grid 0.58 (made after the race)9BritishR10 Belgian: model 0.77, grid 0.62 (made after the race)10BelgianR11 Hungarian: model 0.81, grid 0.77 (made after the race)11HungarianR12 Dutch: model 0.73, grid 0.75 (made after the race)12DutchR13 Italian: model 0.78, grid 0.50 (made after the race)13ItalianR14 Spanish: model 0.73, grid 0.78 (made after the race)14SpanishR15 Azerbaijan: model 0.58, grid 0.4715AzerbaijanLIVER16 Bahrain: model 0.79, grid 0.6516BahrainLIVER17 Singapore: model 0.88, grid 0.7317SingaporeLIVER18 United States: model 0.89, grid 0.8618United StatesLIVER19 Mexico City: model 0.69, grid 0.6319Mexico CityLIVER20 São Paulo: model 0.84, grid 0.4320São PauloLIVE

Do the percentages hold up?

Podium chance it gaveHow often it happened

0255075100Said 0–5%: averaged 1%, happened 1% of 289 times0–5%n=289Said 5–20%: averaged 13%, happened 15% of 46 times5–20%n=46Said 20–50%: averaged 33%, happened 35% of 51 times20–50%n=51Said 50–80%: averaged 65%, happened 67% of 30 times50–80%n=30Said 80–100%: averaged 90%, happened 81% of 16 times80–100%n=16

Races marked LIVE were predicted after qualifying, before the race. The rest were made afterwards, but each one only used races that came before it.

If the percentages are honest, the two bars in each band come out about the same length. Bands with few drivers in them bounce around, so read the small ones loosely.