PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 17 · 2026 season

Singapore Grand Prix

LIVEPredicted before the race Sun 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · 22:00 Manila

P1 VER Red Bull Racing 33% to win Finished 1st
P2 LEC Ferrari 22% to win Finished 2nd
P3 ANT Mercedes 13% to win Finished 3rd

VER won as favourite at 33%3 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: LAW, 11th to 7th

Polymarket had VER at 62%, the model 33%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 VERRed Bull Racing P1 ✓ exact
P2 LECFerrari P2 ✓ exact
P3 ANTMercedes P3 ✓ exact
P4 NORMcLaren P4 ✓ exact
P5 HAMFerrari P6 1 place lower
P6 RUSMercedes P9 3 places lower
P7 PIAMcLaren P5 2 places higher
P8 GASAlpine P11 3 places lower
P9 HADRed Bull Racing P10 1 place lower
P10 LINRacing Bulls P15 5 places lower
P11 LAWRacing Bulls P7 4 places higher
P12 HULAudi P8 4 places higher
P13 COLAlpine DNF
P14 OCOHaas F1 Team P13 1 place higher
P15 BEAHaas F1 Team P12 3 places higher
P16 SAIWilliams P14 2 places higher
P17 BORAudi DNF
P18 ALOAston Martin P16 2 places higher
P19 PERCadillac P17 2 places higher
P20 ALBWilliams P18 2 places higher
P21 BOTCadillac P19 2 places higher
P22 STRAston Martin DNF

Chances

WinPodium

0204060801VER75332LEC64223ANT43134NOR39115HAM36106RUS177PIA168GAS39HAD210LIN2

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 VER Red Bull Racing 1 32.6 74.6 92.2 8.0
2 LEC Ferrari 2 22.4 63.6 93.6 6.5
3 ANT Mercedes 4+1 12.6 43.0 93.0 7.1
4 NOR McLaren 5+1 11.2 39.0 89.9 10.0
5 HAM Ferrari 3-2 10.2 36.2 92.1 7.6
6 RUS Mercedes 22+16 4.2 16.9 72.5 26.9
7 PIA McLaren 6-1 4.1 16.2 89.3 10.2
8 GAS Alpine 7-1 0.7 3.0 73.9 9.4
9 HAD Red Bull Racing 21+12 0.4 1.5 50.1 26.0
10 LIN Racing Bulls 9-1 0.4 1.8 56.1 12.9
11 LAW Racing Bulls 8-3 0.3 1.1 47.9 8.8
12 HUL Audi 10-2 0.2 1.1 43.3 11.7
13 COL Alpine 15+2 0.1 0.5 27.4 16.7
14 OCO Haas F1 Team 12-2 0.1 0.5 24.9 13.6
15 BEA Haas F1 Team 11-4 0.1 0.5 21.2 12.2
16 SAI Williams 13-3 0.1 0.2 11.4 15.4
17 BOR Audi 14-3 0.0 0.2 10.1 14.1
18 ALO Aston Martin 16-2 0.0 0.1 3.4 28.3
19 PER Cadillac 19 0.0 0.0 2.5 27.1
20 ALB Williams 17-3 0.0 0.1 2.8 17.1
21 BOT Cadillac 20-1 0.0 0.0 1.4 26.9
22 STR Aston Martin 18-4 0.0 0.0 0.9 33.1

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.