PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 16 · 2026 season

Bahrain Grand Prix

LIVEPredicted before the race Sat 03 Oct 2026, 11:31 UTC · 19:31 Manila

P1 VER Red Bull Racing 42% to win Finished 1st
P2 HAM Ferrari 14% to win Finished 3rd
P3 ANT Mercedes 14% to win Finished 2nd

VER won as favourite at 42%3 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: STR, 17th to 12th

Polymarket had VER at 57%, the model 42%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 VERRed Bull Racing P1 ✓ exact
P2 HAMFerrari P3 1 place lower
P3 ANTMercedes P2 1 place higher
P4 LECFerrari P4 ✓ exact
P5 HADRed Bull Racing P5 ✓ exact
P6 NORMcLaren P9 3 places lower
P7 PIAMcLaren P6 1 place higher
P8 RUSMercedes P20 12 places lower
P9 GASAlpine P16 7 places lower
P10 LAWRacing Bulls P7 3 places higher
P11 BORAudi P18 7 places lower
P12 ALOAston Martin P8 4 places higher
P13 HULAudi P11 2 places higher
P14 LINRacing Bulls P10 4 places higher
P15 COLAlpine P13 2 places higher
P16 SAIWilliams P17 1 place lower
P17 STRAston Martin P12 5 places higher
P18 OCOHaas F1 Team P15 3 places higher
P19 BEAHaas F1 Team P14 5 places higher
P20 ALBWilliams DNF
P21 BOTCadillac DNF
P22 PERCadillac P19 3 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001VER80422HAM49143ANT49144LEC3395HAD2466NOR227PIA148RUS129GAS410LAW3

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 VER Red Bull Racing 1 41.6 80.5 90.9 9.4
2 HAM Ferrari 2 13.9 48.8 91.8 8.3
3 ANT Mercedes 3 14.2 48.7 92.4 7.7
4 LEC Ferrari 4 8.6 32.7 90.7 8.9
5 HAD Red Bull Racing 8+3 6.0 23.9 85.4 13.1
6 NOR McLaren 5-1 5.3 22.2 86.8 11.8
7 PIA McLaren 6-1 3.5 14.4 83.6 11.9
8 RUS Mercedes 7-1 2.7 11.6 80.5 11.9
9 GAS Alpine 9 0.8 3.7 52.7 12.6
10 LAW Racing Bulls 11+1 0.8 2.9 45.2 12.7
11 BOR Audi 10-1 0.6 2.6 42.0 12.4
12 ALO Aston Martin 12 0.3 1.4 24.3 26.4
13 HUL Audi 15+2 0.3 1.5 26.6 19.1
14 LIN Racing Bulls 22+8 0.2 0.8 18.1 33.1
15 COL Alpine 21+6 0.3 0.9 17.5 27.9
16 SAI Williams 13-3 0.2 1.0 20.4 18.0
17 STR Aston Martin 14-3 0.2 0.6 12.9 31.4
18 OCO Haas F1 Team 17-1 0.1 0.6 12.1 21.9
19 BEA Haas F1 Team 16-3 0.1 0.5 10.3 19.9
20 ALB Williams 18-2 0.1 0.4 7.6 21.3
21 BOT Cadillac 19-2 0.0 0.3 5.9 29.6
22 PER Cadillac 20-2 0.1 0.1 2.3 33.2

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.