PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 15 · 2026 season

Azerbaijan Grand Prix

LIVEPredicted before the race Fri 25 Sep 2026, 16:16 UTC · 00:16 Manila

P1 RUS Mercedes 78% to win Finished 1st
P2 PIA McLaren 6% to win Finished 13th
P3 HAD Red Bull Racing 3% to win Finished 3rd

RUS won as favourite at 78%2 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: LIN, 16th to 7th

Polymarket had RUS at 64%, the model 78%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 RUSMercedes P1 ✓ exact
P2 PIAMcLaren P13 11 places lower
P3 HADRed Bull Racing P3 ✓ exact
P4 LECFerrari P4 ✓ exact
P5 HAMFerrari P6 1 place lower
P6 NORMcLaren DNF
P7 ANTMercedes P5 2 places higher
P8 VERRed Bull Racing P2 6 places higher
P9 GASAlpine DNF
P10 COLAlpine DNF
P11 LAWRacing Bulls P12 1 place lower
P12 SAIWilliams P10 2 places higher
P13 BEAHaas F1 Team P9 4 places higher
P14 ALBWilliams DNF
P15 OCOHaas F1 Team P8 7 places higher
P16 LINRacing Bulls P7 9 places higher
P17 BORAudi P15 2 places higher
P18 HULAudi P11 7 places higher
P19 BOTCadillac P16 3 places higher
P20 PERCadillac P14 6 places higher
P21 ALOAston Martin DNF
P22 STRAston Martin DNF

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001RUS93782PIA5063HAD274LEC265HAM196NOR167ANT158VER149GAS1410COL5

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 RUS Mercedes 1 78.0 93.2 93.5 6.7
2 PIA McLaren 3+1 5.9 50.3 91.7 8.1
3 HAD Red Bull Racing 4+1 2.9 27.0 88.2 8.7
4 LEC Ferrari 2-2 2.7 26.2 89.6 6.6
5 HAM Ferrari 6+1 2.1 19.0 81.8 10.0
6 NOR McLaren 5-1 1.6 16.3 79.6 10.1
7 ANT Mercedes 16+9 1.6 14.7 72.7 18.1
8 VER Red Bull Racing 8 1.5 13.9 73.2 14.2
9 GAS Alpine 7-2 1.4 14.3 76.9 9.0
10 COL Alpine 9-1 0.5 4.8 44.2 11.3
11 LAW Racing Bulls 11 0.3 3.5 34.7 11.6
12 SAI Williams 14+2 0.3 3.0 28.8 17.4
13 BEA Haas F1 Team 10-3 0.2 2.9 30.2 12.1
14 ALB Williams 12-2 0.3 2.9 29.8 12.7
15 OCO Haas F1 Team 13-2 0.2 2.5 25.3 16.0
16 LIN Racing Bulls 15-1 0.2 2.2 23.5 21.4
17 BOR Audi 17 0.1 1.2 13.3 19.0
18 HUL Audi 18 0.1 1.0 10.6 22.2
19 BOT Cadillac 19 0.0 0.4 4.7 28.8
20 PER Cadillac 22+2 0.0 0.3 3.4 36.6
21 ALO Aston Martin 21 0.0 0.2 2.9 39.9
22 STR Aston Martin 20-2 0.0 0.2 1.6 39.4

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.