PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 14 · 2026 season

Spanish Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 16:08 UTC · 00:08 Manila

P1 NOR McLaren 32% to win Finished 3rd
P2 ANT Mercedes 28% to win Finished 1st
P3 HAM Ferrari 9% to win Retired

Favourite NOR (32%) finished 3rd2 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: COL, 12th to 7th

Polymarket had ANT at 38%, the model 28%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 NORMcLaren P3 2 places lower
P2 ANTMercedes P1 1 place higher
P3 HAMFerrari DNF
P4 LECFerrari P4 ✓ exact
P5 VERRed Bull Racing P2 3 places higher
P6 RUSMercedes P5 1 place higher
P7 LAWRed Bull Racing P6 1 place higher
P8 PIAMcLaren P8 ✓ exact
P9 LINRacing Bulls P9 ✓ exact
P10 HULAudi P10 ✓ exact
P11 BORAudi P13 2 places lower
P12 COLAlpine P7 5 places higher
P13 TSURacing Bulls P14 1 place lower
P14 GASAlpine P12 2 places higher
P15 OCOHaas F1 Team P11 4 places higher
P16 SAIWilliams DNF
P17 ALBWilliams P15 2 places higher
P18 BEAHaas F1 Team P16 2 places higher
P19 STRAston Martin DNF
P20 BOTCadillac P18 2 places higher
P21 PERCadillac DNF
P22 ALOAston Martin P17 5 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

0204060801NOR74322ANT71283HAM3394LEC2985VER2776RUS2367LAW138PIA139LIN310HUL3

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 NOR McLaren 1 32.1 74.4 92.6 7.6
2 ANT Mercedes 2 27.7 70.7 93.8 6.3
3 HAM Ferrari 4+1 9.2 33.3 91.5 8.3
4 LEC Ferrari 5+1 7.6 29.3 91.1 8.2
5 VER Red Bull Racing 3-2 7.4 27.2 89.0 9.9
6 RUS Mercedes 6 5.8 23.3 88.6 10.2
7 LAW Red Bull Racing 8+1 3.3 13.2 83.7 11.4
8 PIA McLaren 7-1 3.1 12.8 83.1 11.2
9 LIN Racing Bulls 10+1 0.6 2.7 44.1 14.9
10 HUL Audi 11+1 0.7 2.6 42.5 13.8
11 BOR Audi 12+1 0.5 2.4 41.3 13.1
12 COL Alpine 9-3 0.6 2.4 39.4 11.3
13 TSU Racing Bulls 15+2 0.4 1.5 28.6 15.1
14 GAS Alpine 14 0.3 1.3 27.3 15.4
15 OCO Haas F1 Team 13-2 0.2 0.9 17.8 16.0
16 SAI Williams 20+4 0.1 0.4 8.7 25.0
17 ALB Williams 16-1 0.1 0.4 9.2 16.5
18 BEA Haas F1 Team 22+4 0.1 0.3 7.0 27.9
19 STR Aston Martin 21+2 0.1 0.2 5.7 41.3
20 BOT Cadillac 19-1 0.1 0.3 6.2 28.2
21 PER Cadillac 18-3 0.1 0.2 5.2 28.5
22 ALO Aston Martin 17-5 0.1 0.2 3.7 31.1

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.