PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 13 · 2026 season

Italian Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 16:08 UTC · 00:08 Manila

P1 RUS Mercedes 31% to win Finished 2nd
P2 GAS Alpine 19% to win Finished 7th
P3 HAM Ferrari 12% to win Finished 6th

Favourite RUS (31%) finished 2nd1 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: ANT, 7th to 1st

Polymarket had ANT at 4%, the model 4%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 RUSMercedes P2 1 place lower
P2 GASAlpine P7 5 places lower
P3 HAMFerrari P6 3 places lower
P4 VERRed Bull Racing P3 1 place higher
P5 PIAMcLaren P5 ✓ exact
P6 LECFerrari DNF
P7 ANTMercedes P1 6 places higher
P8 NORMcLaren P4 4 places higher
P9 LINRacing Bulls P8 1 place higher
P10 COLAlpine P9 1 place higher
P11 LAWRed Bull Racing P14 3 places lower
P12 HULAudi P12 ✓ exact
P13 TSURacing Bulls P10 3 places higher
P14 BORAudi P11 3 places higher
P15 BEAHaas F1 Team P15 ✓ exact
P16 OCOHaas F1 Team P16 ✓ exact
P17 SAIWilliams P13 4 places higher
P18 ALBWilliams P17 1 place higher
P19 BOTCadillac P19 ✓ exact
P20 PERCadillac P18 2 places higher
P21 STRAston Martin DNF
P22 ALOAston Martin DNF

Chances

WinPodium

0204060801RUS71312GAS56193HAM38124VER33105PIA3096LEC2987ANT158NOR169LIN410COL3

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 RUS Mercedes 2+1 30.8 70.7 92.6 7.6
2 GAS Alpine 1-1 19.4 56.3 94.3 5.8
3 HAM Ferrari 4+1 11.7 38.3 91.9 8.2
4 VER Red Bull Racing 5+1 9.6 32.8 87.9 11.8
5 PIA McLaren 6+1 9.0 30.1 88.7 10.8
6 LEC Ferrari 3-3 8.0 28.9 92.7 6.8
7 ANT Mercedes 19+12 4.0 14.7 75.5 23.6
8 NOR McLaren 8 4.2 15.8 84.8 13.4
9 LIN Racing Bulls 9 0.9 3.7 63.3 14.7
10 COL Alpine 7-3 0.9 3.1 61.1 10.1
11 LAW Red Bull Racing 22+11 0.3 0.9 26.3 31.6
12 HUL Audi 12 0.2 1.0 27.3 15.4
13 TSU Racing Bulls 15+2 0.2 0.9 24.1 16.2
14 BOR Audi 10-4 0.3 0.8 25.7 11.9
15 BEA Haas F1 Team 11-4 0.2 0.8 23.2 13.6
16 OCO Haas F1 Team 14-2 0.1 0.4 11.7 18.2
17 SAI Williams 13-4 0.1 0.4 11.8 16.5
18 ALB Williams 20+2 0.0 0.2 6.6 22.9
19 BOT Cadillac 16-3 0.0 0.1 3.8 24.0
20 PER Cadillac 17-3 0.0 0.1 3.7 28.1
21 STR Aston Martin 18-3 0.0 0.0 1.7 33.7
22 ALO Aston Martin 21-1 0.0 0.1 1.4 38.2

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.