PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 12 · 2026 season

Dutch Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · 23:24 Manila

P1 NOR McLaren 54% to win Finished 1st
P2 RUS Mercedes 15% to win Finished 3rd
P3 ANT Mercedes 12% to win Finished 2nd

NOR won as favourite at 54%3 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: ALO, 19th to 9th

Polymarket had NOR at 32%, the model 54%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 NORMcLaren P1 ✓ exact
P2 RUSMercedes P3 1 place lower
P3 ANTMercedes P2 1 place higher
P4 PIAMcLaren P6 2 places lower
P5 HAMFerrari P4 1 place higher
P6 LECFerrari P5 1 place higher
P7 VERRed Bull Racing DNF
P8 LAWRed Bull Racing P7 1 place higher
P9 BORAudi P13 4 places lower
P10 LINRacing Bulls P12 2 places lower
P11 GASAlpine P10 1 place higher
P12 HULAudi P8 4 places higher
P13 TSURacing Bulls P11 2 places higher
P14 COLAlpine P14 ✓ exact
P15 OCOHaas F1 Team DNF
P16 ALBWilliams P17 1 place lower
P17 BEAHaas F1 Team DNF
P18 SAIWilliams P16 2 places higher
P19 ALOAston Martin P9 10 places higher
P20 STRAston Martin DNF
P21 BOTCadillac DNF
P22 PERCadillac P15 7 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001NOR88542RUS60153ANT52124PIA285HAM276LEC247VER78LAW39BOR310LIN2

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 NOR McLaren 1 54.5 88.5 92.5 7.7
2 RUS Mercedes 2 14.8 60.3 92.7 7.4
3 ANT Mercedes 3 12.0 51.7 93.0 7.1
4 PIA McLaren 4 5.3 27.9 90.5 9.3
5 HAM Ferrari 5 5.2 26.8 90.8 8.7
6 LEC Ferrari 6 4.4 23.9 91.2 8.4
7 VER Red Bull Racing 7 1.3 7.1 81.0 12.9
8 LAW Red Bull Racing 8 0.5 3.0 63.8 11.3
9 BOR Audi 9 0.5 2.6 60.0 11.1
10 LIN Racing Bulls 10 0.5 2.5 56.7 14.9
11 GAS Alpine 11 0.2 1.2 35.4 12.2
12 HUL Audi 13+1 0.2 1.0 31.5 15.3
13 TSU Racing Bulls 12-1 0.1 0.9 27.8 12.2
14 COL Alpine 14 0.1 0.7 23.6 16.2
15 OCO Haas F1 Team 15 0.1 0.7 22.2 17.2
16 ALB Williams 16 0.1 0.4 14.1 16.3
17 BEA Haas F1 Team 20+3 0.1 0.3 12.4 22.3
18 SAI Williams 17-1 0.0 0.2 6.8 21.2
19 ALO Aston Martin 18-1 0.0 0.1 4.6 31.2
20 STR Aston Martin 19-1 0.0 0.1 4.2 32.9
21 BOT Cadillac 21 0.0 0.1 3.8 30.8
22 PER Cadillac 22 0.0 0.0 1.3 35.1

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.