PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 11 · 2026 season

Hungarian Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · 23:24 Manila

P1 NOR McLaren 49% to win Finished 1st
P2 LEC Ferrari 21% to win Finished 4th
P3 HAM Ferrari 14% to win Finished 5th

NOR won as favourite at 49%1 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: STR, 22nd to 13th

Polymarket had NOR at 33%, the model 49%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 NORMcLaren P1 ✓ exact
P2 LECFerrari P4 2 places lower
P3 HAMFerrari P5 2 places lower
P4 ANTMercedes P3 1 place higher
P5 VERRed Bull Racing P2 3 places higher
P6 PIAMcLaren DNF
P7 RUSMercedes P7 ✓ exact
P8 HADRed Bull Racing P6 2 places higher
P9 LINRacing Bulls P10 1 place lower
P10 HULAudi P9 1 place higher
P11 LAWRacing Bulls P8 3 places higher
P12 BORAudi P11 1 place higher
P13 GASAlpine P12 1 place higher
P14 COLAlpine P15 1 place lower
P15 OCOHaas F1 Team P16 1 place lower
P16 ALOAston Martin P14 2 places higher
P17 BEAHaas F1 Team P19 2 places lower
P18 SAIWilliams P18 ✓ exact
P19 ALBWilliams P17 2 places higher
P20 BOTCadillac DNF
P21 PERCadillac DNF
P22 STRAston Martin P13 9 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001NOR88492LEC72213HAM57144ANT295VER196PIA147RUS98HAD49LIN210HUL2

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 NOR McLaren 1 48.7 87.5 92.3 7.9
2 LEC Ferrari 2 21.1 71.6 93.3 6.7
3 HAM Ferrari 5+2 14.3 57.2 90.8 9.3
4 ANT Mercedes 7+3 5.6 28.8 89.8 10.1
5 VER Red Bull Racing 4-1 3.6 18.6 88.0 11.3
6 PIA McLaren 3-3 2.6 13.7 89.8 8.9
7 RUS Mercedes 6-1 1.7 9.2 85.6 10.9
8 HAD Red Bull Racing 8 0.6 3.6 68.6 12.6
9 LIN Racing Bulls 9 0.3 1.8 50.3 14.8
10 HUL Audi 10 0.4 2.0 49.9 13.5
11 LAW Racing Bulls 11 0.3 1.3 41.4 12.2
12 BOR Audi 14+2 0.2 1.0 34.0 16.3
13 GAS Alpine 12-1 0.2 1.1 33.7 14.0
14 COL Alpine 13-1 0.1 0.7 27.0 15.9
15 OCO Haas F1 Team 15 0.1 0.6 20.5 18.0
16 ALO Aston Martin 16 0.0 0.3 10.3 29.7
17 BEA Haas F1 Team 17 0.0 0.3 9.6 19.6
18 SAI Williams 18 0.0 0.2 7.5 23.7
19 ALB Williams 19 0.0 0.1 6.2 21.3
20 BOT Cadillac 21+1 0.0 0.2 5.3 30.5
21 PER Cadillac 22+1 0.0 0.1 3.6 34.5
22 STR Aston Martin 20-2 0.0 0.1 2.4 38.1

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.