PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 10 · 2026 season

Belgian Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · 23:24 Manila

P1 ANT Mercedes 23% to win Finished 1st
P2 VER Red Bull Racing 22% to win Finished 3rd
P3 RUS Mercedes 15% to win Retired

ANT won as favourite at 23%2 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: LEC, 5th to 2nd

Polymarket had ANT at 66%, the model 23%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 ANTMercedes P1 ✓ exact
P2 VERRed Bull Racing P3 1 place lower
P3 RUSMercedes DNF
P4 HAMFerrari P4 ✓ exact
P5 LECFerrari P2 3 places higher
P6 NORMcLaren P7 1 place lower
P7 PIAMcLaren P5 2 places higher
P8 HADRed Bull Racing P6 2 places higher
P9 LINRacing Bulls P9 ✓ exact
P10 BORAudi P8 2 places higher
P11 LAWRacing Bulls P12 1 place lower
P12 GASAlpine P11 1 place higher
P13 COLAlpine P10 3 places higher
P14 HULAudi P13 1 place higher
P15 BEAHaas F1 Team P14 1 place higher
P16 ALBWilliams P15 1 place higher
P17 SAIWilliams P16 1 place higher
P18 OCOHaas F1 Team P17 1 place higher
P19 BOTCadillac P18 1 place higher
P20 ALOAston Martin P19 1 place higher
P21 PERCadillac DNF
P22 STRAston Martin DNF

Chances

WinPodium

0204060801ANT60232VER59223RUS46154HAM41135LEC41136NOR157PIA158HAD59LIN510BOR4

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 ANT Mercedes 1 22.6 60.2 94.2 6.0
2 VER Red Bull Racing 2 21.9 58.6 90.4 9.7
3 RUS Mercedes 3 14.8 45.6 91.9 8.2
4 HAM Ferrari 5+1 13.0 41.2 90.5 9.3
5 LEC Ferrari 4-1 13.1 41.1 91.8 7.8
6 NOR McLaren 13+7 3.9 14.7 78.5 18.6
7 PIA McLaren 6-1 4.2 15.4 85.6 11.2
8 HAD Red Bull Racing 21+13 1.3 4.7 52.5 30.5
9 LIN Racing Bulls 7-2 1.2 4.8 62.7 12.8
10 BOR Audi 8-2 1.1 3.6 55.2 11.2
11 LAW Racing Bulls 9-2 0.6 2.0 38.8 10.7
12 GAS Alpine 10-2 0.5 2.0 36.6 12.3
13 COL Alpine 11-2 0.4 1.4 27.9 14.1
14 HUL Audi 12-2 0.3 1.2 26.4 15.8
15 BEA Haas F1 Team 14-1 0.4 1.3 23.9 16.4
16 ALB Williams 15-1 0.2 0.6 15.4 17.2
17 SAI Williams 19+2 0.1 0.6 12.8 26.7
18 OCO Haas F1 Team 16-2 0.1 0.4 8.6 20.3
19 BOT Cadillac 17-2 0.1 0.2 6.1 23.7
20 ALO Aston Martin 22+2 0.1 0.2 3.7 41.3
21 PER Cadillac 18-3 0.0 0.1 3.8 28.2
22 STR Aston Martin 20-2 0.1 0.1 2.7 38.2

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.