PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 9 · 2026 season

British Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · 23:24 Manila

P1 ANT Mercedes 73% to win Finished 15th
P2 LEC Ferrari 7% to win Finished 1st
P3 HAM Ferrari 6% to win Finished 3rd

Favourite ANT (73%) finished 15th2 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: COL, 18th to 9th

Polymarket had LEC at 7%, the model 7%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 ANTMercedes P15 14 places lower
P2 LECFerrari P1 1 place higher
P3 HAMFerrari P3 ✓ exact
P4 RUSMercedes P2 2 places higher
P5 HADRed Bull Racing P5 ✓ exact
P6 NORMcLaren P4 2 places higher
P7 VERRed Bull Racing P20 13 places lower
P8 PIAMcLaren P11 3 places lower
P9 LINRacing Bulls P7 2 places higher
P10 LAWRacing Bulls P6 4 places higher
P11 HULAudi DNF
P12 BORAudi P8 4 places higher
P13 ALBWilliams DNF
P14 GASAlpine P10 4 places higher
P15 BEAHaas F1 Team P12 3 places higher
P16 SAIWilliams P17 1 place lower
P17 OCOHaas F1 Team P13 4 places higher
P18 COLAlpine P9 9 places higher
P19 BOTCadillac P16 3 places higher
P20 ALOAston Martin P18 2 places higher
P21 PERCadillac P14 7 places higher
P22 STRAston Martin P19 3 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001ANT93732LEC5173HAM4664RUS335HAD236NOR187VER108PIA109LIN310LAW3

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 ANT Mercedes 1 73.0 93.0 93.6 6.5
2 LEC Ferrari 2 7.1 50.9 93.0 7.2
3 HAM Ferrari 3 6.4 46.2 91.0 9.0
4 RUS Mercedes 4 4.3 33.3 89.9 9.7
5 HAD Red Bull Racing 5 2.8 22.7 86.9 11.7
6 NOR McLaren 6 2.1 18.2 85.6 12.5
7 VER Red Bull Racing 7 1.2 9.9 76.7 16.6
8 PIA McLaren 8 1.2 9.6 76.3 15.4
9 LIN Racing Bulls 9 0.3 2.8 46.2 17.2
10 LAW Racing Bulls 10 0.3 2.6 44.2 12.3
11 HUL Audi 12+1 0.2 2.1 37.5 16.4
12 BOR Audi 11-1 0.2 1.7 31.7 14.5
13 ALB Williams 16+3 0.1 1.4 27.0 19.1
14 GAS Alpine 15+1 0.1 1.3 26.4 19.1
15 BEA Haas F1 Team 13-2 0.2 1.5 26.6 16.3
16 SAI Williams 14-2 0.1 0.9 21.0 20.6
17 OCO Haas F1 Team 17 0.1 0.8 17.3 24.7
18 COL Alpine 19+1 0.1 0.7 12.8 27.3
19 BOT Cadillac 18-1 0.0 0.3 7.6 28.4
20 ALO Aston Martin 21+1 0.0 0.2 3.8 47.4
21 PER Cadillac 20-1 0.0 0.1 2.8 37.6
22 STR Aston Martin 22 0.0 0.1 2.0 49.1

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.