PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 8 · 2026 season

Austrian Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · 23:24 Manila

P1 RUS Mercedes 62% to win Finished 1st
P2 ANT Mercedes 10% to win Finished 3rd
P3 VER Red Bull Racing 6% to win Finished 2nd

RUS won as favourite at 62%3 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: PIA, 7th to 4th

Polymarket had RUS at 37%, the model 62%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 RUSMercedes P1 ✓ exact
P2 ANTMercedes P3 1 place lower
P3 VERRed Bull Racing P2 1 place higher
P4 HAMFerrari P5 1 place lower
P5 LECFerrari P8 3 places lower
P6 NORMcLaren P7 1 place lower
P7 PIAMcLaren P4 3 places higher
P8 HADRed Bull Racing P6 2 places higher
P9 LINRacing Bulls P10 1 place lower
P10 LAWRacing Bulls P9 1 place higher
P11 HULAudi P12 1 place lower
P12 OCOHaas F1 Team P16 4 places lower
P13 GASAlpine P13 ✓ exact
P14 BORAudi P11 3 places higher
P15 COLAlpine P15 ✓ exact
P16 BEAHaas F1 Team P14 2 places higher
P17 SAIWilliams DNF
P18 ALBWilliams P17 1 place higher
P19 ALOAston Martin P18 1 place higher
P20 PERCadillac DNF
P21 BOTCadillac DNF
P22 STRAston Martin DNF

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001RUS89622ANT51103VER3564HAM3775LEC3566NOR197PIA138HAD89LIN310LAW2

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 RUS Mercedes 1 62.2 88.7 90.6 9.8
2 ANT Mercedes 4+2 9.8 50.9 90.1 10.0
3 VER Red Bull Racing 5+2 6.5 34.9 82.3 17.7
4 HAM Ferrari 3-1 6.6 36.9 88.7 11.1
5 LEC Ferrari 2-3 6.3 34.9 90.6 8.9
6 NOR McLaren 6 3.1 19.1 83.7 15.2
7 PIA McLaren 7 2.1 12.9 80.9 16.9
8 HAD Red Bull Racing 8 1.3 8.0 75.0 17.1
9 LIN Racing Bulls 10+1 0.4 2.7 50.4 20.8
10 LAW Racing Bulls 9-1 0.4 2.2 46.2 12.8
11 HUL Audi 14+3 0.3 1.4 34.8 20.5
12 OCO Haas F1 Team 15+3 0.2 1.5 32.1 23.0
13 GAS Alpine 11-2 0.2 1.4 33.5 15.9
14 BOR Audi 12-2 0.2 1.2 32.1 16.9
15 COL Alpine 16+1 0.2 1.0 25.4 23.3
16 BEA Haas F1 Team 13-3 0.1 0.8 23.8 17.7
17 SAI Williams 17 0.1 0.5 14.1 25.0
18 ALB Williams 18 0.0 0.3 9.0 20.4
19 ALO Aston Martin 21+2 0.0 0.2 5.2 46.6
20 PER Cadillac 19-1 0.0 0.2 5.0 33.0
21 BOT Cadillac 20-1 0.0 0.2 4.7 29.3
22 STR Aston Martin 22 0.0 0.1 1.8 50.0

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.