PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 7 · 2026 season

Barcelona Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · 23:24 Manila

P1 HAM Ferrari 37% to win Finished 1st
P2 RUS Mercedes 24% to win Finished 2nd
P3 ANT Mercedes 14% to win Finished 16th

HAM won as favourite at 37%2 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: GAS, 15th to 7th

Polymarket had HAM at 15%, the model 37%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 HAMFerrari P1 ✓ exact
P2 RUSMercedes P2 ✓ exact
P3 ANTMercedes P16 13 places lower
P4 PIAMcLaren P5 1 place lower
P5 NORMcLaren P3 2 places higher
P6 HADRed Bull Racing P6 ✓ exact
P7 VERRed Bull Racing P4 3 places higher
P8 LECFerrari P15 7 places lower
P9 LAWRacing Bulls P8 1 place higher
P10 LINRacing Bulls P9 1 place higher
P11 HULAudi DNF
P12 COLAlpine P10 2 places higher
P13 BORAudi P11 2 places higher
P14 BEAHaas F1 Team P17 3 places lower
P15 GASAlpine P7 8 places higher
P16 OCOHaas F1 Team P13 3 places higher
P17 SAIWilliams P12 5 places higher
P18 ALBWilliams DNF
P19 STRAston Martin DNF
P20 PERCadillac P14 6 places higher
P21 ALOAston Martin DNF
P22 BOTCadillac DNF

Chances

WinPodium

0204060801HAM78372RUS68243ANT51144PIA2875NOR2666HAD207VER138LEC89LAW210LIN1

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 HAM Ferrari 2+1 37.3 77.8 88.3 11.8
2 RUS Mercedes 1-1 24.4 68.0 89.8 10.3
3 ANT Mercedes 3 14.4 51.0 90.0 10.1
4 PIA McLaren 7+3 6.7 28.0 80.6 19.3
5 NOR McLaren 4-1 6.3 26.3 85.9 13.7
6 HAD Red Bull Racing 6 4.5 20.1 84.0 15.6
7 VER Red Bull Racing 5-2 3.0 13.3 80.8 19.1
8 LEC Ferrari 10+2 1.7 8.0 83.1 14.0
9 LAW Racing Bulls 8-1 0.4 2.0 63.3 11.3
10 LIN Racing Bulls 11+1 0.3 1.2 40.4 22.9
11 HUL Audi 9-2 0.2 1.0 41.8 13.7
12 COL Alpine 13+1 0.1 0.7 31.0 19.2
13 BOR Audi 12-1 0.1 0.7 33.0 14.5
14 BEA Haas F1 Team 15+1 0.1 0.5 24.7 16.7
15 GAS Alpine 14-1 0.1 0.5 22.9 17.1
16 OCO Haas F1 Team 17+1 0.1 0.2 13.4 25.1
17 SAI Williams 16-1 0.1 0.2 13.6 20.1
18 ALB Williams 18 0.0 0.2 11.9 16.0
19 STR Aston Martin 21+2 0.0 0.1 6.0 39.0
20 PER Cadillac 19-1 0.0 0.1 6.5 28.1
21 ALO Aston Martin 22+1 0.0 0.1 5.0 40.9
22 BOT Cadillac 20-2 0.0 0.1 4.0 23.9

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.