PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 6 · 2026 season

Monaco Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · 23:24 Manila

P1 ANT Mercedes 44% to win Finished 1st
P2 VER Red Bull Racing 32% to win Retired
P3 HAM Ferrari 7% to win Finished 2nd

ANT won as favourite at 44%2 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: LIN, 14th to 6th

Polymarket had ANT at 57%, the model 44%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 ANTMercedes P1 ✓ exact
P2 VERRed Bull Racing DNF
P3 HAMFerrari P2 1 place higher
P4 LECFerrari DNF
P5 HADRed Bull Racing P3 2 places higher
P6 RUSMercedes P12 6 places lower
P7 NORMcLaren DNF
P8 PIAMcLaren P4 4 places higher
P9 GASAlpine P7 2 places higher
P10 HULAudi P13 3 places lower
P11 LAWRacing Bulls P5 6 places higher
P12 SAIWilliams P16 4 places lower
P13 ALBWilliams P8 5 places higher
P14 LINRacing Bulls P6 8 places higher
P15 COLAlpine P14 1 place higher
P16 BORAudi P11 5 places higher
P17 OCOHaas F1 Team P9 8 places higher
P18 ALOAston Martin P10 8 places higher
P19 BEAHaas F1 Team DNF
P20 BOTCadillac DNF
P21 PERCadillac P15 6 places higher
P22 STRAston Martin DNF

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001ANT87442VER79323HAM3674LEC295HAD236RUS227NOR78PIA69GAS310HUL1

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 ANT Mercedes 1 44.4 87.1 92.6 7.5
2 VER Red Bull Racing 2 32.5 78.8 87.2 13.1
3 HAM Ferrari 3 6.7 36.4 92.2 7.9
4 LEC Ferrari 4 5.0 29.3 92.1 7.7
5 HAD Red Bull Racing 5 3.9 22.9 89.6 9.8
6 RUS Mercedes 6 3.6 21.8 89.6 9.8
7 NOR McLaren 8+1 1.2 7.0 81.2 11.9
8 PIA McLaren 7-1 1.0 6.4 78.2 13.4
9 GAS Alpine 9 0.4 2.6 59.9 10.2
10 HUL Audi 13+3 0.2 1.4 35.9 13.0
11 LAW Racing Bulls 10-1 0.2 1.2 37.0 9.8
12 SAI Williams 12 0.1 1.0 30.8 14.4
13 ALB Williams 11-2 0.2 1.0 30.9 9.2
14 LIN Racing Bulls 15+1 0.1 0.5 16.7 22.4
15 COL Alpine 14-1 0.1 0.6 16.8 17.3
16 BOR Audi 16 0.1 0.5 15.5 16.0
17 OCO Haas F1 Team 17 0.1 0.3 12.6 19.2
18 ALO Aston Martin 21+3 0.0 0.3 9.4 32.7
19 BEA Haas F1 Team 19 0.1 0.3 10.4 17.1
20 BOT Cadillac 20 0.0 0.3 8.7 20.9
21 PER Cadillac 18-3 0.0 0.2 8.6 20.1
22 STR Aston Martin 22 0.0 0.2 4.0 36.6

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.