PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 5 · 2026 season

Canadian Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · 23:24 Manila

P1 RUS Mercedes 64% to win Retired
P2 ANT Mercedes 18% to win Finished 1st
P3 PIA McLaren 7% to win Finished 11th

Favourite RUS (64%) retired1 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: BEA, 17th to 10th

Polymarket had ANT at 30%, the model 18%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 RUSMercedes DNF
P2 ANTMercedes P1 1 place higher
P3 PIAMcLaren P11 8 places lower
P4 NORMcLaren DNF
P5 HAMFerrari P2 3 places higher
P6 VERRed Bull Racing P3 3 places higher
P7 LECFerrari P4 3 places higher
P8 HADRed Bull Racing P5 3 places higher
P9 COLAlpine P6 3 places higher
P10 LINRacing Bulls DNS
P11 LAWRacing Bulls P7 4 places higher
P12 HULAudi P12 ✓ exact
P13 GASAlpine P8 5 places higher
P14 BORAudi P13 1 place higher
P15 SAIWilliams P9 6 places higher
P16 OCOHaas F1 Team P14 2 places higher
P17 BEAHaas F1 Team P10 7 places higher
P18 ALOAston Martin DNF
P19 PERCadillac DNF
P20 ALBWilliams DNF
P21 STRAston Martin P15 6 places higher
P22 BOTCadillac P16 6 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001RUS93642ANT77183PIA4474NOR385HAM196VER107LEC108HAD29COL110LIN1

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 RUS Mercedes 1 63.9 92.8 94.2 6.1
2 ANT Mercedes 2 17.8 76.8 94.9 5.1
3 PIA McLaren 4+1 6.6 44.4 93.1 7.0
4 NOR McLaren 3-1 5.4 37.5 93.0 7.0
5 HAM Ferrari 5 2.6 19.0 92.2 7.4
6 VER Red Bull Racing 6 1.2 10.0 82.9 15.5
7 LEC Ferrari 8+1 1.2 9.5 89.5 8.2
8 HAD Red Bull Racing 7-1 0.3 2.4 64.8 11.2
9 COL Alpine 10+1 0.2 1.2 43.2 12.2
10 LIN Racing Bulls 9-1 0.2 1.3 41.0 14.4
11 LAW Racing Bulls 12+1 0.1 0.9 35.2 10.3
12 HUL Audi 11-1 0.1 0.8 31.8 10.9
13 GAS Alpine 14+1 0.1 0.8 29.9 12.7
14 BOR Audi 13-1 0.1 0.5 24.0 12.0
15 SAI Williams 15 0.1 0.6 21.2 11.8
16 OCO Haas F1 Team 17+1 0.0 0.4 18.1 17.4
17 BEA Haas F1 Team 16-1 0.0 0.3 15.1 13.8
18 ALO Aston Martin 19+1 0.0 0.2 7.7 33.0
19 PER Cadillac 20+1 0.0 0.2 8.7 20.6
20 ALB Williams 18-2 0.0 0.2 9.7 12.2
21 STR Aston Martin 22+1 0.0 0.1 4.4 35.4
22 BOT Cadillac 21-1 0.0 0.1 5.4 17.3

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.