PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 4 · 2026 season

Miami Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:23 UTC · 23:23 Manila

P1 ANT Mercedes 65% to win Finished 1st
P2 VER Red Bull Racing 14% to win Finished 5th
P3 LEC Ferrari 14% to win Finished 8th

ANT won as favourite at 65%1 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: BOR, 21st to 12th

Polymarket had ANT at 34%, the model 65%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 ANTMercedes P1 ✓ exact
P2 VERRed Bull Racing P5 3 places lower
P3 LECFerrari P8 5 places lower
P4 NORMcLaren P2 2 places higher
P5 RUSMercedes P4 1 place higher
P6 HAMFerrari P6 ✓ exact
P7 PIAMcLaren P3 4 places higher
P8 GASAlpine DNF
P9 HADRed Bull Racing DNF
P10 COLAlpine P7 3 places higher
P11 HULAudi DNF
P12 LAWRacing Bulls DNF
P13 BEAHaas F1 Team P11 2 places higher
P14 SAIWilliams P9 5 places higher
P15 ALBWilliams P10 5 places higher
P16 OCOHaas F1 Team P13 3 places higher
P17 LINRacing Bulls P14 3 places higher
P18 STRAston Martin P17 1 place higher
P19 BOTCadillac P18 1 place higher
P20 ALOAston Martin P15 5 places higher
P21 BORAudi P12 9 places higher
P22 PERCadillac P16 6 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001ANT95652VER69143LEC73144NOR265RUS166HAM117PIA58GAS29HAD110COL1

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 ANT Mercedes 1 64.6 94.6 95.8 4.3
2 VER Red Bull Racing 2 13.6 69.1 88.1 12.1
3 LEC Ferrari 3 14.1 73.4 94.7 5.4
4 NOR McLaren 4 3.2 25.5 93.2 6.8
5 RUS Mercedes 5 1.9 15.5 92.7 7.0
6 HAM Ferrari 6 1.3 10.7 92.5 7.1
7 PIA McLaren 7 0.6 5.0 89.2 7.6
8 GAS Alpine 9+1 0.2 1.7 72.2 7.8
9 HAD Red Bull Racing 22+13 0.1 0.7 39.0 29.0
10 COL Alpine 8-2 0.1 0.7 40.2 7.4
11 HUL Audi 10-1 0.1 0.6 37.7 8.5
12 LAW Racing Bulls 11-1 0.0 0.6 34.6 8.2
13 BEA Haas F1 Team 12-1 0.0 0.5 31.6 11.0
14 SAI Williams 13-1 0.0 0.3 24.4 9.3
15 ALB Williams 15 0.0 0.4 20.8 8.9
16 OCO Haas F1 Team 14-2 0.0 0.2 15.7 15.6
17 LIN Racing Bulls 16-1 0.0 0.1 9.7 15.1
18 STR Aston Martin 18 0.0 0.1 5.6 46.4
19 BOT Cadillac 19 0.0 0.1 7.3 15.4
20 ALO Aston Martin 17-3 0.0 0.1 4.3 48.3
21 BOR Audi 21 0.0 0.1 6.8 12.7
22 PER Cadillac 20-2 0.0 0.1 3.9 21.5

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.