PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 3 · 2026 season

Japanese Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:23 UTC · 23:23 Manila

P1 ANT Mercedes 57% to win Finished 1st
P2 RUS Mercedes 28% to win Finished 4th
P3 LEC Ferrari 6% to win Finished 3rd

ANT won as favourite at 57%2 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: LAW, 14th to 9th

Polymarket had ANT at 52%, the model 57%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 ANTMercedes P1 ✓ exact
P2 RUSMercedes P4 2 places lower
P3 LECFerrari P3 ✓ exact
P4 PIAMcLaren P2 2 places higher
P5 NORMcLaren P5 ✓ exact
P6 HAMFerrari P6 ✓ exact
P7 HADRed Bull Racing P12 5 places lower
P8 VERRed Bull Racing P8 ✓ exact
P9 LINRacing Bulls P14 5 places lower
P10 GASAlpine P7 3 places higher
P11 OCOHaas F1 Team P10 1 place higher
P12 BORAudi P13 1 place lower
P13 HULAudi P11 2 places higher
P14 LAWRacing Bulls P9 5 places higher
P15 ALBWilliams P20 5 places lower
P16 BEAHaas F1 Team DNF
P17 COLAlpine P16 1 place higher
P18 SAIWilliams P15 3 places higher
P19 PERCadillac P17 2 places higher
P20 BOTCadillac P19 1 place higher
P21 STRAston Martin DNF
P22 ALOAston Martin P18 4 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001ANT94572RUS87283LEC4364PIA385NOR146HAM127HAD28VER19LIN210GAS2

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 ANT Mercedes 1 56.6 94.0 95.6 4.5
2 RUS Mercedes 2 28.4 87.1 93.8 6.3
3 LEC Ferrari 4+1 5.7 43.3 94.1 6.0
4 PIA McLaren 3-1 4.9 38.4 93.7 6.3
5 NOR McLaren 5 1.7 14.2 91.8 7.6
6 HAM Ferrari 6 1.4 11.5 91.9 7.3
7 HAD Red Bull Racing 8+1 0.2 1.8 52.6 25.7
8 VER Red Bull Racing 11+3 0.2 1.3 43.8 33.7
9 LIN Racing Bulls 10+1 0.2 1.5 56.3 10.9
10 GAS Alpine 7-3 0.2 1.5 52.4 7.0
11 OCO Haas F1 Team 12+1 0.2 1.1 46.7 8.7
12 BOR Audi 9-3 0.1 0.9 38.4 6.1
13 HUL Audi 13 0.1 0.9 35.3 9.8
14 LAW Racing Bulls 14 0.1 0.7 32.2 9.2
15 ALB Williams 17+2 0.0 0.5 20.5 9.1
16 BEA Haas F1 Team 18+2 0.0 0.3 18.3 12.3
17 COL Alpine 15-2 0.0 0.3 18.0 10.6
18 SAI Williams 16-2 0.0 0.3 13.8 10.4
19 PER Cadillac 19 0.0 0.1 4.6 25.7
20 BOT Cadillac 20 0.0 0.1 4.1 19.6
21 STR Aston Martin 22+1 0.0 0.0 1.0 77.5
22 ALO Aston Martin 21-1 0.0 0.0 1.0 74.2

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.