PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 2 · 2026 season

Chinese Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:23 UTC · 23:23 Manila

P1 ANT Mercedes 44% to win Finished 1st
P2 RUS Mercedes 23% to win Finished 2nd
P3 HAM Ferrari 16% to win Finished 3rd

ANT won as favourite at 44%3 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: LAW, 16th to 7th

Polymarket had ANT at 28%, the model 44%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 ANTMercedes P1 ✓ exact
P2 RUSMercedes P2 ✓ exact
P3 HAMFerrari P3 ✓ exact
P4 LECFerrari P4 ✓ exact
P5 NORMcLaren DNS
P6 PIAMcLaren DNS
P7 VERRed Bull Racing DNF
P8 GASAlpine P6 2 places higher
P9 BEAHaas F1 Team P5 4 places higher
P10 HADRed Bull Racing P8 2 places higher
P11 HULAudi P11 ✓ exact
P12 OCOHaas F1 Team P14 2 places lower
P13 COLAlpine P10 3 places higher
P14 BORAudi DNS
P15 LINRacing Bulls P12 3 places higher
P16 LAWRacing Bulls P7 9 places higher
P17 ALBWilliams DNS
P18 SAIWilliams P9 9 places higher
P19 ALOAston Martin DNF
P20 BOTCadillac P13 7 places higher
P21 PERCadillac P15 6 places higher
P22 STRAston Martin DNF

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001ANT87442RUS72233HAM60164LEC44105NOR186PIA117VER28GAS29BEA110HAD1

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 ANT Mercedes 1 44.4 86.7 93.8 6.4
2 RUS Mercedes 2 22.8 71.5 92.1 8.1
3 HAM Ferrari 3 15.6 59.5 91.9 8.3
4 LEC Ferrari 4 9.7 43.7 91.6 8.4
5 NOR McLaren 6+1 3.6 18.0 89.4 10.4
6 PIA McLaren 5-1 2.1 10.9 90.0 9.4
7 VER Red Bull Racing 8+1 0.5 2.4 75.9 8.0
8 GAS Alpine 7-1 0.3 1.7 67.5 10.0
9 BEA Haas F1 Team 10+1 0.2 1.1 54.9 11.9
10 HAD Red Bull Racing 9-1 0.2 1.2 52.1 11.4
11 HUL Audi 11 0.1 0.7 36.6 12.8
12 OCO Haas F1 Team 13+1 0.1 0.5 29.2 13.8
13 COL Alpine 12-1 0.1 0.4 25.7 13.3
14 BOR Audi 16+2 0.0 0.3 23.9 14.4
15 LIN Racing Bulls 15 0.1 0.4 21.0 18.2
16 LAW Racing Bulls 14-2 0.0 0.3 16.4 14.1
17 ALB Williams 22+5 0.0 0.1 11.1 20.0
18 SAI Williams 17-1 0.0 0.2 10.7 16.9
19 ALO Aston Martin 18-1 0.0 0.1 9.6 12.5
20 BOT Cadillac 19-1 0.0 0.1 6.7 18.7
21 PER Cadillac 21 0.0 0.1 6.0 14.7
22 STR Aston Martin 20-2 0.0 0.1 3.8 14.9

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.