PARCFERMÉodds, locked after qualifying

Round 1 · 2026 season

Australian Grand Prix

Made after the raceSun 11 Oct 2026, 15:23 UTC · 23:23 Manila

P1 RUS Mercedes 72% to win Finished 1st
P2 ANT Mercedes 20% to win Finished 2nd
P3 LEC Ferrari 3% to win Finished 3rd

RUS won as favourite at 72%3 of 3 podium spots calledBiggest surprise: SAI, 22nd to 15th

Polymarket had RUS at 70%, the model 72%

Result vs prediction

Predicted is our order before the race. Actual is where they finished. PodiumPoints

PredictedDriverActualvs prediction
P1 RUSMercedes P1 ✓ exact
P2 ANTMercedes P2 ✓ exact
P3 LECFerrari P3 ✓ exact
P4 HADRed Bull Racing DNF
P5 PIAMcLaren DNS
P6 HAMFerrari P4 2 places higher
P7 NORMcLaren P5 2 places higher
P8 VERRed Bull Racing P6 2 places higher
P9 LINRacing Bulls P8 1 place higher
P10 HULAudi DNS
P11 LAWRacing Bulls P13 2 places lower
P12 BEAHaas F1 Team P7 5 places higher
P13 BORAudi P9 4 places higher
P14 OCOHaas F1 Team P11 3 places higher
P15 GASAlpine P10 5 places higher
P16 COLAlpine P14 2 places higher
P17 ALBWilliams P12 5 places higher
P18 STRAston Martin DNF
P19 ALOAston Martin DNF
P20 BOTCadillac DNF
P21 PERCadillac P16 5 places higher
P22 SAIWilliams P15 7 places higher

Chances

WinPodium

02550751001RUS92722ANT88203LEC364HAD245PIA206HAM127NOR98VER39LIN310HUL2

Full field

PredDriverTeamGridWinPodiumPointsDNF
1 RUS Mercedes 1 71.6 92.5 92.6 7.6
2 ANT Mercedes 2 19.7 87.9 93.3 6.7
3 LEC Ferrari 4+1 2.8 36.1 92.0 8.0
4 HAD Red Bull Racing 3-1 1.7 24.4 91.6 8.0
5 PIA McLaren 5 1.5 20.0 89.6 8.9
6 HAM Ferrari 7+1 0.8 11.6 85.6 9.7
7 NOR McLaren 6-1 0.7 8.9 81.8 9.7
8 VER Red Bull Racing 20+12 0.2 3.4 52.9 18.1
9 LIN Racing Bulls 9 0.2 2.7 49.8 10.4
10 HUL Audi 11+1 0.2 2.3 43.0 11.2
11 LAW Racing Bulls 8-3 0.2 2.0 42.0 9.2
12 BEA Haas F1 Team 12 0.1 1.6 32.2 11.5
13 BOR Audi 10-3 0.1 1.6 32.9 9.2
14 OCO Haas F1 Team 13-1 0.1 1.0 25.2 11.9
15 GAS Alpine 14-1 0.0 0.8 18.4 12.6
16 COL Alpine 16 0.1 0.6 16.2 13.7
17 ALB Williams 15-2 0.0 0.5 15.4 11.7
18 STR Aston Martin 22+4 0.0 0.4 9.5 18.3
19 ALO Aston Martin 17-2 0.0 0.4 10.1 14.0
20 BOT Cadillac 19-1 0.0 0.4 9.2 14.9
21 PER Cadillac 18-3 0.0 0.4 8.8 14.9
22 SAI Williams 21-1 0.0 0.4 7.9 16.6

The predicted order sits close to the starting grid, and that is expected. This model has not been shown to beat "everyone finishes where they start". The percentages are what it adds: checked against past races, they come out about right on average.

Grid penalties are only included if they were entered by hand. They are never in the timing data this is built from.